Posted on July 21, 2026 by Mitchel LaRocca
Long-term Treasury yields are sending stocks a message the market hasn’t fully priced in, with the 30-year near 5.06%-5.09% and the 10-year around 4.525%, both comfortably above the S&P 500’s own earnings yield of roughly 3.4%-3.9%. However, equities haven’t blinked: the S&P’s forward P/E sits near 20-21 times versus a ten-year average closer to 19, even as the risk-free alternative now pays more than stocks yield on their own earnings. That combination — rich multiples against rising long rates — is the classic setup where investors start demanding more from earnings growth to justify holding stocks over bonds, and the roughly 23% profit growth analysts are penciling in this year is exactly what’s being asked to carry that weight. Technically, the gap between stock and bond yields is sitting at a decision point rarely seen outside of stretched markets, one where continued strength depends on calm inflation data and earnings […]
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Posted on September 26, 2022 by Mitchel LaRocca
As inflation continues to challenge double digits the Fed has launched an aggressive attack by raising interest rates. Decades of near-zero, zero, and negative rates globally created a “risk-on” approach to investing, allowing risk assets of all types to march upward almost uninterrupted. The pandemic and actions of global governments and central banks to add liquidity has allowed unprecedented valuations in most asset classes. However, the price for all that liquidity is now at hand — Inflation. The economic lag of the “accommodative” monetary policies took approximately 18 months and central banks are using multiple tools to achieve “full employment and price stability”. As a result bond prices have dropped sharply and rates have risen. As U.S. elections approach in November it is time to assess the impact for all corporations and individuals. Market disruptions as seen the last few months create opportunity in multiple areas if approached wisely.
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Posted on December 26, 2019 by Mitchel LaRocca
Gold has been on a steady climb. Holiday trading can bring less trading participation and at times lackluster markets. However, that has not been the case this year as the precious metals have been on traders’ radar and have been making a steady climb. For weeks a lot of conventional analysts have suggested the Gold market cannot sustain a rally. However, hopeful trade discussions, stronger economic readings, and increased demand by investors and Central Banks has helped push the metals higher. Add enough occasional political uncertainty interspersed with risk-on then risk-off trading patterns and the Gold market has managed to trigger enough buying to push above trend lines and create continued buying. Opportunities exist in multiple precious metals markets and we believe they will continue into the new year. For additional information and risk parameters please contact Mitch LaRocca @ 972-387-0080 or mitch@dallascommodity.com
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Posted on December 20, 2018 by Mitchel LaRocca
As the chart below indicates, major stock indexes have moved from the proverbial “bottom left to top right” since March 2009! Along the way there have been minor stalls and corrections but the global macro economic environment and extremely accommodative central bank monetary policies have extended the rally into record territory. We now face growing concerns about such things as global growth, rising interest rates, and a potential U.S. government shutdown. From a technical prospective the charts appear to be at a “decision point”. Questions abound and depending on prospective there are opportunities with various trading tools to participate. Whether hedging an existing stock and bond portfolio or attempting to embrace a market move, the use of futures and options can be utilized to diversify your exposure. We have the tools available to meet your needs and are available to discuss a variety of strategies at this critical time in […]
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Posted on August 27, 2017 by Mitchel LaRocca
The Gold market has essentially traded sideways within a range from approximately $1200 – $1300 all of 2017. The same factors that faced this market in January still influence the price today. Global macro-economic uncertainty, central bank interest rate decisions and a see-saw of “risk on, risk off” sentiment continue to keep Gold in a $100.00 trading range. However, recent events domestically and abroad have allowed Gold to climb towards the break out area of $1300.00 – $1310.00 per ounce. A clearly defined channel such as shown below opens a variety of trading opportunities for those looking for a return to the bottom of the channel or a surge in price above the year’s highs. Technicians look prepared to jump on board if those areas are breached. For additional information and risk parameters please contact Mitch LaRocca @ 972-387-0080 or mitch@dallascommodity.com
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