What’s In YOUR Wallet?

Posted on June 18, 2015 by Walter Otstott

After dallying about for the last two weeks, the US Dollar Index has resumed its downward trend. Janet Yellen stated yesterday that the conditions for raising short-term interest rates are not there yet and that hiking them too soon (even modestly) is just as dangerous as raising rates too late (Remember 1937 when the US relapsed into severe recession: http://www.federalreservehistory.org/Events/DetailView/27. You also have to consider worldwide ramifications and that the United States is approaching an election year (I cannot remember the Fed raising rates going into a major election. I’m shooting off the cuff here; correct me if I’m misinformed). The Euro is making gains, as concerns about Grexit: the exit of Greece from the Euro-zone has been factored into the value of the Euro Currency Unit. This is not just my opinion, and certainly not the opinion of the late-to-the-show band wagoners! The commodity currency, a.k.a. the Australian Dollar, may be on the verge of breaking […]

Read More »

What’s up Buck?

Posted on June 10, 2015 by Walter Otstott

After choppy trade late last week, the US Dollar Index has been weakening again. The Euro is slightly higher from Wednesday week ago levels and the Aussie flat.  Most greenback weakness was from strength in the Pound, Yen and Canuck dollar. Except for crude oil strength, dollar denominated commodity reaction has been nil.  However, they are notorious in that, historically, they tend to lag in response. It’s all about timing… God give me patience, and give it to me now!   For additional information and risk parameters please contact Walter Otstott @ 972-387-0080 or walter@dallascommodity.com     Regards, Walt Walter Otstott Dallas Commodity Company, Inc. The Colonnade, Building III 15305 Dallas Parkway, Suite 930 Addison, Texas 75001 (972) 387-0080 (972) 387-0018, fax (214) 537-9750, cell walter@dallascommodity.com Guaranteed Introducing Broker to R. J. O’Brien www.dallascommodity.com Information herein has been obtained and prepared from sources believed to be reliable; however no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Comments […]

Read More »

Composition Of The US Dollar Index (USDX)

Posted on June 3, 2015 by Walter Otstott

U.S. Dollar Index: EURO 57.6% JAPANESE YEN 13.6% BRITISH POUND 11.9% CANADIAN DOLLAR 9.1% SWEDISH KRONA 4.2% SWISS FRANC 3.6% The Swiss Franc and the British Pound, though independent and not components there of, closely mimic fluctuations in the exchange rate between the Euro Currency Unit (ECU) verses the greenback. This is why I’ve repeatedly stated that the Euro has over 60% weighting in the US Dollar Index (USDX). Lumping them together, you can make the argument that the ECU has over 70% weight: Euro (57.6%) + British Pound (11.9%) + Swiss Franc (3.6%) = 73.1%. Hence, the Euro is a decent, inverse proxy to the buck (Bullish on US Dollar: sell Euro. Bearish on US Dollar: buy Euro). The other currency I’m championing, the Australian Dollar (alias “commodity currency”) is the value of the Aussie verses the greenback only. It also has no weight in the USDX. Because of […]

Read More »

Dollar Swoon Resumes

Posted on June 3, 2015 by Walter Otstott

It appears the greenback resumed its swoon yesterday. For reference, below are the US Dollar Index; the Euro Currency Unit & Aussie $ charts. I favor the Euro as it represents over 60% weighting in the US Dollar Index, which makes it a good, high liquidity proxy in trading the buck’s value. The Euro zone has also been trashed for so long and the economic picture has been improving: so much so that investments which went to the United States are now starting to migrate back to Europe (Such is the ebb and flow of monies). As for the Aussie $, it is undervalued to my eyes (It historically trades around parity with the greenback). Because of the nature of Australian commerce, many consider it the “commodity” currency. It’s probably the closest thing to a commodity index. I consider limited risk plays against the greenback to be more than mere […]

Read More »

The Yield Curve

Posted on February 24, 2015 by Mitchel LaRocca

This is a spread trade that attempts to capture the changing interest rate environment. It appears from Tuesday’s Janet Yellen’s testimony the Fed will raise longer term rates later than sooner. At the same time she mentioned that the shorter term rates (such as Fed Fund rates) will be increased before the longer term rates. When rates go higher interest rate instruments move lower. This spread trade will hopefully capture the “timing” of those increases. If the scenario materializes the longer term 30 year bond should maintain their current rates within a certain range and keep prices at higher levels. At the same time the shorter term rates should rise causing the price of those instruments to drop. It sounds somewhat complicated but the bottom line is that the difference between the 30 year Bond (currently around 145-15) and the 5 year Note (currently around 120-00) could continue to widen. […]

Read More »

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Dallas Commodity Company and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Dallas Commodity Company's Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

The risk of loss in trading commodity futures contracts can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. You may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain a position in the commodity futures market.